Monday, September 6, 2010

You do not need to gamble at Macau - Part 2

What have made Macau's future brilliant is this:

1.  Macau has become the world's number 1 (measured by what matters the most - $$$) casino center.

I did a casual observation that at each table (I never gamble, only to observe) each round the dealer had around $1000 profit.  That reminded me of a McKinsey interview question we practiced at MBA: how many gas stations are there in the USA.  I did an estimate...

Actually, there is a better way now, with the advancement of the Internet and mobile phones, I did a search for Macau's gaming revenue.  The answer?  I will let you do the same exercise here and you will be shocked.

2.  Even when people (one in a thousand) make money from the casino, with so many shops, restaurants, and other entertainment places most of those winnings never leave Macau.

3.  Macau has been importing labor.  With such a quick explosion of the economy, there isn't enough local people.  Therefore, labor import has been necessary and acceptable. 

Where do these people live?  hint hint!

4.  Forget about tearing down an old building in Macau to rebuild.  And Macau is surrounded by ocean.  Most of its land is from reclamation and as it reclaims further, the depth it needs to reclaim goes up.  Therefore, the cost of land is also going up dramatically.

5.  The transportation infrastructure to be built in the next 5-10 years will make this small city explode.


6.  The best part is: when you ask most people about investing in Macau, they will tell you their concern about vacancy, crime, and lack of transparency.  All of those used to be true, but silently improving significantly.  As a result, even though Macau's GDP per capita has surpassed HK's, its property price is still at a huge (40%) discount to HK's. 

To my sensitive nose, this smells opportunity.   

I can go on and on, but still there are a few obstacles.

Among which, the biggest is the proximity of Macau.

I live in Hong Kong.  I do not want to go to Macau all the time to manage my property.
If I want to invest, I want to invest 100 units to make my trip worthwhile.

This is where Hunt-in-Pack comes in.

When I can bring 100 investors in, we can bargain for a good deal.  We can collectively appoint a good management company and they, wanting to have us as a big client, will give us the best service.

...

And we can collect much better intelligence in terms of prices, vacancy, economic data, ... and manage the property units with the best professionalism.  (Amateurs never make money, they pay to play).

So what else can totally eliminate the nature of gambling in investing in Macau?

Post a comment.  Subscribe to this blog.  Stay tuned!

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